The Stockdale Paradox – To Never Give Up On The Big Goal, Face The Brutal Realities

 ‘Bhaiyya,’ said Rahul over the video call. ‘I’m waiting for the lockdown to end so I can get back to normal life.’

‘What’s wrong with you?’ said Rinku. ‘Why’d you want to run out like you escaped from prison? It’s not safe yet.’

‘But the lockdown will be lifted right?’ said Rahul. ‘We should be optimistic, right bhaiyya?’

‘No,’ said Rinku. ‘We should consider the worst case scenario.’

‘Let’s talk to Prof Hussain, our business management Prof,’ said Rakesh. ‘He shared some interesting thoughts in our online class.’

Rakesh added Prof Hussain and told him of their dilemma.

‘Well,’ said Prof Hussain. ‘This is not the time for optimism or pessimism. This is time for realism. Whenever we’re facing a severe crisis in our lives, we’re better off following the Stockdale Paradox.’

‘What’s that sir?’ asked Rahul.

‘James Stockdale was a US Vice Admiral who survived eight years as a prisoner in a Vietnamese camp not knowing if and when his terrible ordeal would end,’ said Prof Hussain. ‘Jim Collins wrote about Stockdale’s experience in his book ‘Good to Great’. What the Stockdale Paradox essentially says is that we must never lose faith that we’ll make it through difficult, uncertain periods - like the one we’re facing now. However, we must not get over optimistic.’

‘What?’ asked Rinku. ‘How’s that possible?’

‘That’s the paradox,’ laughed Prof Hussain. ‘Many of us are over optimistic and expect things to be normal very soon. And when we realise that the uncertainty could last longer and things could get worse than we expected, we lose heart and give up. Instead, we’re better off being aware of the most brutal facts of our reality, and figuring out how to cope with them day on day. For example we cannot be overly optimistic and run around the moment the lockdown is lifted, exposing ourselves and others at home to risk. Nor can we be overly pessimistic and lock ourselves underground for a year.’

‘What’s being realistic sir?’ asked Rahul.

‘We saw how drastically the situation changed within days didn’t we?’ said Prof Hussain. ‘As this uncertain situation evolves, there could be more changes in days to come. Limited access, online classes, restricted travel, not meeting friends and relatives, no partying or eating out, quarantines, lockdowns, are all possibilities. We must be aware that such situations could arise and be prepared. That’s being realistic.’

‘Yes sir,’ said Rahul.

‘It’s a rare experience, so use the Stockdale Paradox well and make it a defining moment in your life like he did,’ said Prof Hussain. ‘Write, create, share. Figure ways to help yourselves and others. It’s a great opportunity to learn and grow.’

‘Indeed,’ said Rinku. ‘I’ll go add a healthy dose of realism to my chai right now. We needed this.’

Pro Tip: Resolve to come out of stressful and uncertain experiences and make them defining moments. Don’t be over optimistic or pessimistic - be realistic. In real and present danger, that’s the best strategy.

 

Exercise: Tell students to pick a tough challenge that lays ahead of them which seems unsurmountable. Tell them to write a clear vision of what they would like to happen at the end of that ordeal. Then ask them to list out the brutal realities of the path they have embarked on – all the pitfalls and how they will encounter them. they are good to handle it.