How Confirmation Bias Can Influence Your Decisions

 ‘Bhaiyya, we’re electing a secretary for our literature club,’ said Rinku. ‘It’s between Mansi and Harsh.’

‘Í’ve decided who I am voting for,’ said Rahul. ‘Mansi’s very good. She reads a lot of books and participates in literary events.’

‘Rahul, reading books and participating in literary events does not make her a good secretary,’said Rinku. ‘The other day we had to cancel a reading she was supposed to organise remember? Don’t forget she has no organising experience. On the other hand Harsh conducted the last three literary events excellently and has been on the Lit club committee. You cannot ignore that.’

‘But Mansihas great ideas,’ said Rahul. ‘And good contacts. Her Facebook posts have quotes and pictures offamous poets and writers she met at the Literary Festival last year.’

‘You’re saying any random thing to support Mansi,’ said Rinku. ‘That’s not how you decide.’

‘The more I seeher social media profiles, the more I think she is the right choice,’ said Rahul. ‘The stuff she postsisgood. She even looks the part.’

‘Rahul,’said Rakesh. ‘Í feel you could be falling prey to confirmation bias.’

‘What’s that bhaiyya?’ asked Rahul.

‘Confirmation bias is our tendency to search for, remember and interpret information that confirms our prior beliefs or values,’ said Rakesh. ‘We are biased towards selectively picking information that confirms what we think is right. In this case you’re searching for information that supports your pre-existing belief that Mansi is the ideal cultural secretaryeven if the information is not proven, true or relevant.’

‘But what’s wrong with that bhaiyya?’ asked Rahul.

‘Confirmation bias leads to serious errors in decision making,’said Rakesh. ‘Let’s say you’vegot a major decision to make, like joining a particular course or college. If youlook for information that only confirms what you’ve decided on, you will overlook disconfirming evidence. The course content and pictures may look good on the website but with unknown faculty and results. Which means you are making a big decision without considering all the information available, the pros and cons. It’s wiser to consider all alternatives and not just one side.’

‘It happenson social media,’said Rinku. ‘Social media platforms usefilter bubbles so we see only what we agree with, not opposing views.Most political, religious arguments are fuelled bythe confirmation bias it leads to, which polarise us. Our attitudes become inflexible, we become overconfidentbased on insufficient information, leading to flawed decisions.’

‘How do we deal with confirmation biasbhaiyya?’ asked Rahul.

‘By actively seeking out disconfirming evidence against your pre-existing belief,’ said Rakesh. ‘Though difficult, it gives you an opposing perspective, some distance from emotions. Secondly, be aware that we’re mostly dealing with assumptions in these spaces - the more nebulous our assumptions, the more we‘re prone to confirmation bias. Thirdly, as a practice, write your beliefs about money, relationships, successetc and then writedisconfirming evidence against them. Then,ruthlessly get rid ofold beliefs that don’t hold against contrary evidence. It’s like getting rid of bad companythat’s been posing as your good friend.’

‘Thanks bhaiyya,’ said Rahul. ‘I’ll watch out for this confirmation bias like a hawk from now on.’

Pro Tip: Be aware of confirmation bias while making important decisions. Look for disconfirming evidence, explore all possibilities that can tripyou up, and then make the decision.